Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to increase unless the billions of tons of our annual emissions decrease substantially. Increased concentrations are expected to: Show
These changes will impact our food supply, water resources, infrastructure, ecosystems, and even our own health. Future changes will depend on many factors
Scientists use computer models of the climate system to better understand these issues and project future climate changes. Past and present-day greenhouse gas emissions will affect climate far into the futureMany greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time. As a result, even if emissions stopped increasing, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would continue to increase and remain elevated for hundreds of years. Moreover, if we stabilized concentrations and the composition of today's atmosphere remained steady (which would require a dramatic reduction in current greenhouse gas emissions), surface air temperatures would continue to warm. This is because the oceans, which store heat, take many decades to fully respond to higher greenhouse gas concentrations. The ocean's response to higher greenhouse gas concentrations and higher temperatures will continue to impact climate over the next several decades to hundreds of years.[2] To learn more about greenhouse gases, please visit the Greenhouse Gas Emissions page and the Greenhouse Effect section of the Causes of Climate Change page. Because it is difficult to project far-off future emissions and other human factors that influence climate, scientists use a range of scenarios using various assumptions about future economic, social, technological, and environmental conditions. Click the image to view a larger version. Top of Page Future temperature changesWe have already observed global warming over the last several decades. Future temperatures are expected to change further. Climate models project the following key temperature-related changes. Key global projections
Click the image to view a larger version. Click the image to view a larger version. Key U.S. projections
Top of Page Future precipitation and storm eventsPatterns of precipitation and storm events, including both rain and snowfall are also likely to change. However, some of these changes are less certain than the changes associated with temperature. Projections show that future precipitation and storm changes will vary by season and region. Some regions may have less precipitation, some may have more precipitation, and some may have little or no change. The amount of rain falling in heavy precipitation events is likely to increase in most regions, while storm tracks are projected to shift poleward.[2] Climate models project the following precipitation and storm changes. Click the image to view a larger version. Key global projections
Key U.S. projections
Click the image to view a larger version. Top of Page Future ice, snowpack, and permafrostArctic sea ice is already declining.[2] The area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased since about 1970.[2] Permafrost temperatures in Alaska and much of the Arctic [2] have increased over the last century.[1] To learn more about recent changes in snow and ice, visit the Snow and Ice page of the Indicators section. Over the next century, it is expected that sea ice will continue to decline, glaciers will continue to shrink, snow cover will continue to decrease, and permafrost will continue to thaw. Potential changes to ice, snow, and permafrost are described below. Click the image to view a larger version. Key global projections
Key U.S. projections
Top of Page Future sea level changeWarming temperatures contribute to sea level rise by: expanding ocean water; melting mountain glaciers and ice caps; and causing portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to melt or flow into the ocean.[3] Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 7.5 inches.[2] Estimates of future sea level rise vary for different regions, but global sea level for the next century is expected to rise at a greater rate than during the past 50 years.[2] Studies project global sea level to rise by another 1 to 4 feet by 2100, with an uncertainty range of 0.66 to 6.6 feet.[1] The contribution of thermal expansion, ice caps, and small glaciers to sea level rise is relatively well studied, but the impacts of climate change on ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are less understood and represent an active area of research. Changes in ice sheets are currently expected to account for 1.2 to 8 inches of sea level rise by the end of this century.[3] Click the image to view a larger version. Regional and local factors will influence future relative sea level rise for specific coastlines around the world. For example, relative sea level rise depends on land elevation changes that occur as a result of subsidence (sinking) or uplift (rising). Assuming that these historical geological forces continue, a 2-foot rise in global sea level by 2100 would result in the following relative sea level rise:[4]
Relative sea level rise also depends on local changes in currents, winds, salinity, and water temperatures, as well as proximity to thinning ice sheets.[2] Top of Page Future ocean acidificationOcean acidification adversely affects many marine species, including plankton, mollusks, shellfish, and corals. As ocean acidification increases, the availability of calcium carbonate will decline. Calcium carbonate is a key building block for the shells and skeletons of many marine organisms. If atmospheric CO2 concentrations double, coral calcification rates are projected to decline by more than 30%. If CO2 concentrations continue to rise at their current rate, the combination of climate warming and ocean acidification could slow coral growth by nearly 50% by 2050.[5] Click the image to view a larger version. Top of Page References[1] USGCRP (2014) Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. [2] IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Exit. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. [3] NRC (2011). Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia Exit. National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA. [4] USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. [5] IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Top of Page |